Republicans Pour Cash Into 'Safe' House Races as Private Polls Signal Trouble
WASHINGTON — The Republican Party is rushing money into more than three dozen House races it once considered safe, after internal polling suggested that even deep-red seats could be in jeopardy in the November 3 midterm elections, according to party operatives and campaign finance records reviewed by Reuters.
Since September 1, major Republican groups and megadonors have started spending in at least 39 congressional races where they had not previously deployed money this cycle, the review found. The shift is already visible in advertising reservations and federal campaign finance filings.
Many of the candidates now receiving support sit in longtime Republican strongholds and remain ahead of their Democratic opponents in public polling. But party leaders are increasingly worried that voters could use the midterms to register dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump's policies, three Republican operatives familiar with the party's thinking told Reuters.
House Republican leaders have recently warned dozens of campaigns that internal data shows they cannot take victory for granted — even where they lead in public surveys and represent districts Trump carried by double digits.
"Republicans are playing defense in some of the strongholds that they're used to not having to worry about," said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, a partner at the bipartisan public affairs firm Rokk Solutions.
Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 majority in the House, with one independent caucusing with the party and two seats vacant. Democrats would need to gain a net of at least four seats to seize control of the chamber.
Two Republican operatives working with party leadership said the party is using its fundraising advantage to smother Democratic challengers before they can build momentum, describing the spending as "insurance policies" to keep Republican-held districts in the fold.
"Republicans are deploying our massive war chest to drive voters to the polls and supercharge our candidates," said Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee. "We're not taking anything for granted, because, unlike Democrats, Republicans aren't throwing in the towel on races we can win."
Representative Bryan Steil of Wisconsin offers one telling example. His district backed Trump by about 4.5 percentage points in 2024 and is rated "lean Republican" by the Cook Political Report. Even so, conservative super PACs spent $1.5 million on his race this month — their first investment there this cycle. A representative for Steil declined to comment.
In North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, east of Raleigh, Representative Gregory Murphy received $131,107 from a conservative PAC last week, the first outside spending on his behalf in the midterms. Democrats have spent more than $326,000 trying to unseat him since July. Trump won the district by 14 percentage points, and Cook rates it "solid Republican." Murphy's office did not return a request for comment.
The emergency spending reflects a harsh reality for the party: economic strain is battering traditionally Republican territory. Rising gasoline prices, energy costs and fertilizer expenses are hitting voters in the agricultural heartland especially hard. One Republican House campaign aide described the environment for candidates in Iowa, Kansas and other Midwestern states as "dire" as diesel prices climb.
"We're in this crucial period in the last 30 days where candidates have to really make a case, given how tough the headwinds are," said Kevin Madden, a former adviser to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney who is now a senior partner at the corporate advisory firm Penta Group. He said campaigns are operating as though they are behind in the polls "even in red districts or traditionally safe" ones.
Independent committees have spent more than $1.56 billion on federal elections so far this cycle, with roughly $496 million of that deployed just since Labor Day, according to a Reuters analysis of super PAC spending. That figure does not include spending by dark-money nonprofits that do not disclose their donors.
Republicans have reserved at least $888 million in advertising in the coming weeks, compared with at least $666 million for Democrats, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising. The No Going Back PAC — funded entirely by Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc. — is leading the surge, Federal Election Commission records show.
Over the last three weeks, Republican-leaning super PACs have outspent their Democratic counterparts by nearly two to one: about $309.7 million since Labor Day versus $174.2 million aiding Democratic candidates, the FEC data shows.
"Republicans have air superiority. House Democrats are scrambling to catch up with the very limited resources they have," said Mike Marinella, national press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which works to elect Republicans to the House.
Democrats acknowledge the funding disadvantage but argue that the Republican push into districts Trump won comfortably shows how troubled the party's position is.
"Republicans are running scared, know they've lost the American people, and are trying one last hail mary to spend their way out of certain defeat," said Viet Shelton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
In one South Texas district that Trump won by 18 percentage points in 2024, Republican groups have poured about $2 million into text messages, direct mail and digital ads since September 5 to help incumbent Representative Monica De La Cruz hold her seat. The Cook Political Report moved the race from "lean Republican" to "tossup" on Friday. De La Cruz's campaign manager said she was grateful for her supporters' help in defeating her rival.
With just over a month until Election Day, both parties agree on one thing: the map is wider — and more expensive — than anyone expected.